2026 Midterm Election Odds
Control of Congress, every Senate and governor race on a map, and the House, priced by four venues.
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC. Election day is November 3, 2026.
Who controls Congress
Senate control
Senate control: Republican odds · Kalshi · R · Polymarket · R · last 90 days
House control
House control: Republican odds · Kalshi · R · Polymarket · R · last 90 days
Senate races
35 races. Tap a state for the race page.
Democrat leadsRepublican leadsIndependent leadsno race or no marketDarker = surer. Tap a state for the race.
Governor races
36 races.
Democrat leadsRepublican leadsIndependent leadsno race or no marketDarker = surer. Tap a state for the race.
Closest Senate races
| Race | Leader | Rating | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Josh TurekD flip | Toss-up | 49% | 49% | 57% | 50% | 50% |
| Kansas | Adam HamiltonD flip | Toss-up | 66% | 65% | 75% | 64% | 66% |
| Alaska | Mary PeltolaD flip | Toss-up | 68% | 67% | 70% | 70% | 69% |
| Maine | Troy JacksonD flip | Toss-up | 70% | 69% | 67% | 70% | 69% |
| South Carolina | Darline GrahamR | Lean R | 70% | 70% | 66% | 72% | 70% |
| Nebraska | Pete RickettsR | Lean R | 72% | 72% | 70% | 72% | 72% |
| Ohio | Sherrod BrownD flip | Lean D | 72% | 70% | 76% | 72% | 72% |
| Texas | James TalaricoD flip | Lean D | 75% | 74% | 73% | 76% | 74% |
| Michigan | Abdul El-SayedD | Lean D | 75% | 75% | 75% | 76% | 75% |
| Louisiana | Julia LetlowR | Likely R | 83% | 83% | 88% | 84% | 84% |
Closest governor races
| Race | Leader | Rating | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Ty MastersonR flip | Lean R | — | 64% | 62% | 64% | 64% |
| Texas | Greg AbbottR | Lean R | 67% | 66% | 65% | 66% | 66% |
| Vermont | Phil ScottR | Likely R | 67% | 66% | 67% | 68% | 67% |
| Georgia | Keisha Lance BottomsD flip | Lean D | 72% | 71% | 68% | 72% | 72% |
| Florida | Byron DonaldsR | Lean R | 73% | 73% | 68% | 72% | 72% |
| Ohio | Amy ActonD flip | Lean D | 79% | 79% | 81% | 82% | 80% |
| Nevada | Aaron FordD flip | Toss-up | 83% | 83% | 83% | 82% | 83% |
| Oregon | Tina KotekD | Lean D | 84% | 83% | 70% | 86% | 84% |
| New Hampshire | Kelly AyotteR | Likely R | — | 85% | — | 86% | 85% |
| Wisconsin | David CrowleyD | Lean D | 85% | 85% | 86% | 86% | 86% |
House
Kalshi lists 350 House districts. 30 have a leader priced under 80%. Every district is on the House page.
| District | Leader | Kalshi | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| AL-02 | Shomari Figures | 52% | $195k |
| CO-05 | Jeff Crank | 52% | $78k |
| NV-02 | David Flippo | 52% | $144k |
| NJ-02 | Jeff Van Drew | 54% | $124k |
| SC-01 | Jenny Costa Honeycutt | 54% | $85k |
| NC-03 | Greg Murphy | 60% | $378k |
| NC-13 | Brad Knott | 60% | $199k |
| KY-06 | Zach Dembo | 61% | $118k |
| MN-01 | Brad Finstad | 61% | $99k |
| FL-22 | Pia Dandiya | 62% | $58k |
| MO-02 | Ann Wagner | 62% | $149k |
| OH-15 | Mike Carey | 62% | $62k |
| TX-23 | Brandon Herrera | 63% | $977k |
| VA-05 | John McGuire | 64% | $317k |
| FL-09 | Dan Green | 65% | $43k |
| NC-09 | Richard Hudson | 65% | $225k |
| CO-04 | Lauren Boebert | 66% | $97k |
| FL-07 | Ryan Elijah | 66% | $28k |
| FL-27 | Maria Elvira Salazar | 68% | $89k |
| OH-10 | Mike Turner | 70% | $138k |
| NY-21 | Anthony Constantino | 72% | $75k |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor | 73% | $201k |
| IA-02 | Lindsay James | 73% | $33k |
| AR-02 | French Hill | 76% | $66k |
| FL-16 | Sydney Gruters | 76% | $16k |
State of the Odds shows the last traded price on each venue and the median across them. A gap between venues is a disagreement between pools of real money. Neither side is a forecast. How to read these prices.