2026 Midterm Election Odds
Every Senate, governor and House race with a live market, on both exchanges, with the gap between them.
Prices as of 2026-09-19 18:30 UTC. Sorted with the closest races first.
Who controls Congress
Senate control
Senate control: Republican odds — Kalshi · R · Polymarket · R · last 90 days
House control
House control: Republican odds — Kalshi · R · Polymarket · R · last 90 days
Senate races
35 races with an open market on at least one exchange. Kalshi lists a Yes contract per party; Polymarket lists named candidates.
| State | Leader | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown D | 55% | 55% | +1 pts |
| Texas | James Talarico D | 59% | 60% | -1 pts |
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson R | 61% | 62% | -1 pts |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed D | 65% | 66% | -1 pts |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts R | 68% | 68% | +1 pts |
| Maine | Troy Jackson D | 68% | 70% | -1 pts |
| Alaska | Democratic party D | 70% | 72% Mary Peltola | different leader |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall R | 74% | 74% | +1 pts |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas D | 83% | 80% | +2 pts |
| South Carolina | Darline Graham R | 87% | 86% | +1 pts |
| Florida | Ashley Moody R | 90% | 92% | -2 pts |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan D | 90% | 92% | -2 pts |
| Montana | Kurt Alme R | 91% | 92% Kurt Alme (R) | different leader |
| Idaho | Jim Risch R | 92% | 95% | -3 pts |
| Louisiana | Andy Barr R | 95% | 92% | +2 pts |
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith R | 93% | 92% | +0 pts |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper D | 93% | 92% | +0 pts |
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds R | 92% | 94% | -1 pts |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff D | 93% | 94% Jon Ossoff (D) | different leader |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton R | 93% | 94% Tom Cotton (R) | different leader |
| Alabama | Barry Moore R | 98% | 95% | +3 pts |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Hern R | 97% | 96% | +2 pts |
| Delaware | Democratic party D | 98% | 96% | +3 pts |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr (R) | — | 96% | — |
| Wyoming | Harriet Hageman R | 98% | 96% Harriet Hageman (R | different leader |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed D | 97% | 96% | +1 pts |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper D | 99% | 96% | +3 pts |
| Illinois | Juliana Stratton D | 98% | 96% | +1 pts |
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty R | 96% | 96% | -0 pts |
| New Jersey | Cory Booker D | 98% | 96% | +2 pts |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján D | 97% | 97% | +0 pts |
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito R | 97% | 97% | -0 pts |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley D | 97% | 97% | -0 pts |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey D | 98% | 98% | +0 pts |
| Virginia | Mark Warner D | 98% | 98% | +0 pts |
Governor races
| State | Leader | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms D | 55% | — | — |
| Nevada | Joe Lombardo R | 56% | — | — |
| Ohio | Amy Acton D | 59% | 56% | +3 pts |
| Kansas | Ty Masterson (R) | — | 70% | — |
| Iowa | Rob Sand D | 78% | — | — |
| Texas | Greg Abbott R | 78% | 80% | -2 pts |
| Florida | Byron Donalds R | 79% | 80% Byron Donalds (R) | different leader |
| Alaska | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | — | 80% | — |
| Wisconsin | David Crowley D | 81% | 84% | -2 pts |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek D | 85% | 85% | +0 pts |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs D | 88% | — | — |
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson D | 90% | — | — |
| Nebraska | Jim Pillen R | 91% | — | — |
| Oklahoma | Mike Mazzei R | 92% | — | — |
| Alabama | Tommy Tuberville R | 92% | — | — |
| Vermont | Phil Scott R | 93% | — | — |
| New York | Kathy Hochul D | 93% | 94% | -1 pts |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar D | 96% | 94% | +2 pts |
| Maine | Hannah Pingree D | 94% | — | — |
| New Mexico | Deb Haaland D | 94% | — | — |
| Tennessee | Marsha Blackburn R | 95% | — | — |
| South Carolina | Alan Wilson R | 95% | — | — |
| Massachusetts | Maura Healey D | 95% | 95% | +0 pts |
| Maryland | Wes Moore D | 95% | — | — |
| California | Xavier Becerra D | 96% | 95% Xavier Becerra | different leader |
| Colorado | Phil Weiser D | 95% | — | — |
| Arkansas | Sarah Huckabee Sanders R | 95% | — | — |
| Illinois | JB Pritzker D | 96% | — | — |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro D | 97% | 97% | +0 pts |
| Hawaii | Josh Green D | 97% | 97% | +0 pts |
| Rhode Island | Helena Foulkes D | 98% | — | — |
| South Dakota | Larry Rhoden R | 98% | — | — |
| Wyoming | Eric Barlow R | 98% | — | — |
| Idaho | Brad Little R | 99% | 98% | +1 pts |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont D | 98% | — | — |
House
Kalshi lists 350 House districts. 22 have a leader priced under 80%. Full list: all House districts.
| District | Leader | Kalshi | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| IA-02 | Joe Mitchell | 51% | $7k |
| FL-22 | Casey Askar | 56% | $14k |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor | 64% | $83k |
| FL-07 | Ryan Elijah | 66% | $7k |
| FL-09 | Dan Green | 66% | $7k |
| AL-02 | Rhett Marques | 68% | $43k |
| CO-05 | Jeff Crank | 68% | $13k |
| TX-23 | Brandon Herrera | 68% | $46k |
| CO-04 | Lauren Boebert | 70% | $14k |
| MO-02 | Republican party | 71% | $8k |
| SC-01 | Jenny Costa Honeycutt | 71% | $5k |
| FL-25 | Jared Moskowitz | 72% | $59k |
| FL-27 | Maria Elvira Salazar | 75% | $5k |
| NC-09 | Richard Hudson | 76% | $4k |
| KY-06 | Ralph Alvarado | 77% | $4k |
| NV-02 | David Flippo | 77% | $4k |
| OH-15 | Mike Carey | 77% | $4k |
| OH-07 | Brian Poindexter | 78% | $36k |
| CA-52 | Juan Vargas | 79% | $3k |
| MN-01 | Brad Finstad | 79% | $58k |
| NY-01 | Nick LaLota | 79% | $9k |
| OR-04 | Val Hoyle | 79% | $191 |
State of the Odds shows the last traded price on each exchange and the gap between them. A gap is a disagreement between two pools of real money, not a forecast. How to read these prices.