New Mexico Senate Race Odds 2026
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC.
Ben Ray LujánD leads at 99% across 4 venues: Kalshi 99%, Polymarket US 98%, PredictIt 99%, Polymarket 99%. Larry MarkerR is at 1%.
Final prices before polls closed
Frozen at 2026-11-03 22:47 UTC. The result is entered when the race is called and scored on the results ledger.
- Kalshi Ben Ray Luján 99%
- Polymarket US Ben Ray Luján 98%
- PredictIt Ben Ray Luján 99%
- Polymarket Ben Ray Luján 99%
Candidates and prices
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Ray LujánD incumbent Senator since 2021, seeking a second term | 99% bid 98¢ · ask 99¢ · OI $18k | 98% ask 99¢ | 99% | 99% vol $22k | 99% |
| Larry MarkerR Write-in candidate who won the June Republican primary | 2% bid 1¢ · ask 2¢ · OI $118k | 1% ask 2¢ | 1% buy 18¢ | 1% vol $12k | 1% |
Where to trade this race
Every book we know that takes this race, with the price it shows for Ben Ray Luján. The brokers trade Kalshi's contract at Kalshi's price. Partner books pay us a referral fee; the order is paying books first, which never changes a price.
Each book checks age and location at sign-up. How the sites compare.
The race
The forecasters' consensus rating is Solid D, favouring the Democrat. The markets' consensus has Ben Ray LujánD at 99%. What a price means.
How the Kalshi market resolves
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of New Mexico for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Related races
- New Mexico Governor: Deb HaalandD at 95%
- Iowa Senate: Josh TurekD at 50%
- Kansas Senate: Adam HamiltonD at 66%
- Alaska Senate: Mary PeltolaD at 69%
- Maine Senate: Troy JacksonD at 69%
- South Carolina Senate: Darline GrahamR at 70%