Government Shutdown Odds Tracker
What two real-money markets say about a shutdown on October 1, updated every couple of hours.
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC. Fiscal year 2027 funding runs out at midnight on September 30, 2026 unless Congress passes appropriations or a continuing resolution.
Shutdown on Oct 1, 2026 · Kalshi
—
open interest —
Shutdown by Oct 1 · Polymarket
0%
volume $17k
Appropriations lapse Oct 1 · Polymarket
0%
volume $4k
Odds of a shutdown on October 1, 2026 · Polymarket · shutdown by Oct 1 · last 90 days
How many shutdowns in 2026?
| Number of shutdowns before 2027 | Kalshi | Open interest |
|---|---|---|
| 2 or more | 66% | $5k |
| 3 or more | 27% | $5k |
| 4 or more | 7% | $2k |
| 5 or more | 6% | $573 |
What counts as a shutdown
This page tracks the September 30 deadline. When Congress passes a short-term continuing resolution, the exchanges open a new market for the next deadline and this page follows it.