Government Shutdown Odds Tracker
What two real-money markets say about a shutdown on October 1, updated every couple of hours.
Prices as of 2026-09-19 18:30 UTC. Fiscal year 2027 funding runs out at midnight on September 30, 2026 unless Congress passes appropriations or a continuing resolution.
Shutdown on Oct 1, 2026 · Kalshi
1%
open interest $343k
Shutdown by Oct 1 · Polymarket
2%
volume $16k
Appropriations lapse Oct 1 · Polymarket
1%
volume $3k
Odds of a shutdown on October 1, 2026 — Kalshi · shutdown Oct 1 · Polymarket · shutdown by Oct 1 · last 90 days
How many shutdowns in 2026?
| Number of shutdowns before 2027 | Kalshi | Open interest |
|---|---|---|
| 2 or more | 64% | $5k |
| 3 or more | 25% | $5k |
| 4 or more | 6% | $2k |
| 5 or more | 6% | $573 |
What counts as a shutdown
If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This page tracks the September 30 deadline. When Congress passes a short-term continuing resolution, the exchanges open a new market for the next deadline and this page follows it.