Live prediction-market odds, side by side
Elections, the shutdown, awards season. Kalshi and Polymarket prices on one page, refreshed every couple of hours.
Prices as of 2026-09-19 18:30 UTC.
Biggest moves this week
| Market | Contract | Now | 7-day change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Which party will win the U.S. Senate? | Republican Party | 42% | -10 pts |
| Which party will win the U.S. Senate? | Democratic Party | 58% | +10 pts |
| Alaska Governor winner? (Person) | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 76% | +9 pts |
| Texas Senate winner? | Ken Paxton | 42% | -7 pts |
| Texas Senate winner? | James Talarico | 59% | +7 pts |
| Kansas Senate winner? | Roger Marshall | 74% | -6 pts |
| Alaska Governor winner? (Person) | Bernadette Wilson | 13% | -6 pts |
| Kansas Senate winner? | Adam Hamilton | 27% | +6 pts |
| Alaska Senate winner? | Democratic party | 70% | +6 pts |
| Texas Governor winner? | Greg Abbott | 78% | -5 pts |
Where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree
Same race, same leader, different price. Two pools of real money that have not agreed yet.
| Race | Leader | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama Senate | Barry Moore | 98% | 95% | +3 pts |
| Delaware Senate | Democratic party | 98% | 96% | +3 pts |
| Colorado Senate | John Hickenlooper | 99% | 96% | +3 pts |
| Idaho Senate | Jim Risch | 92% | 95% | -3 pts |
| Ohio Governor | Amy Acton | 59% | 56% | +3 pts |
| New Hampshire Senate | Chris Pappas | 83% | 80% | +2 pts |
| Wisconsin Governor | David Crowley | 81% | 84% | -2 pts |
| Minnesota Senate | Peggy Flanagan | 90% | 92% | -2 pts |
| Louisiana Senate | Andy Barr | 95% | 92% | +2 pts |
| Texas Governor | Greg Abbott | 78% | 80% | -2 pts |
Sections
- 2026 midterms — Senate and House control, every Senate, governor and House race
- 2028 presidential election — party, nominees, next president
- Government shutdown tracker — the September 30 deadline
- Awards — Emmys, Oscars, Grammys by category
- Best political betting sites — eight US sites compared
- How prediction-market prices work