US election odds, every prediction market, side by side
The 2026 midterms, the 2028 race and the shutdown. Kalshi, Polymarket US, PredictIt and Polymarket prices on one page, refreshed every couple of hours.
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC.
Biggest moves this week
| Market | Contract | Now | 7-day change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate winner? | Adam Hamilton | 66% | +22 pts |
| Kansas Senate winner? | Roger Marshall | 36% | -22 pts |
| Florida Governor winner? | Byron Donalds | 73% | -17 pts |
| Florida Governor winner? | David Jolly | 28% | +16 pts |
| Maine Senate winner? | Susan Collins | 32% | -14 pts |
| Maine Senate winner? | Troy Jackson | 70% | +13 pts |
| Iowa Senate winner? | Josh Turek | 49% | +12 pts |
| Iowa Senate winner? | Ashley Hinson | 52% | -12 pts |
| Michigan Senate winner? | Mike Rogers | 25% | -11 pts |
| Who will control the Senate? | Democratic Party | 75% | +11 pts |
Where the venues disagree
Same race, same leader, different price. Pools of real money that have not agreed yet. The last column is the spread between the highest and lowest venue.
| Race | Leader | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon Governor | Tina KotekD | 84% | 83% | 70% | 86% | +16 pts |
| Kansas Senate | Adam HamiltonD | 66% | 65% | 75% | 64% | +10 pts |
| Iowa Senate | Josh TurekD | 49% | 49% | 57% | 50% | +8 pts |
| Florida Senate | Ashley MoodyR | 91% | 90% | 83% | 90% | +8 pts |
| Alaska Governor | Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsD | 87% | 88% | 93% | 87% | +6 pts |
| Ohio Senate | Sherrod BrownD | 72% | 70% | 76% | 72% | +6 pts |
| South Carolina Senate | Darline GrahamR | 70% | 70% | 66% | 72% | +5 pts |
| Louisiana Senate | Julia LetlowR | 83% | 83% | 88% | 84% | +5 pts |
| Nebraska Governor | Jim PillenR | 88% | 89% | 93% | 88% | +5 pts |
| Florida Governor | Byron DonaldsR | 73% | 73% | 68% | 72% | +5 pts |
Sections
- Results against the odds: every called race scored against the final price on each venue
- 2026 midterms: control of Congress, maps of every Senate and governor race, the House
- Senate races and governor races: every race with the incumbent, the forecasters' rating, four venues' prices and where to trade
- 2028 presidential election: party, nominees and next president
- Government shutdown tracker: the next funding deadline
- Political betting sites: the US venues compared on markets, states and fees
Guides
- 2026 Senate Races Closest by Betting Odds, Ranked, 10 Oct 2026