Florida Senate Race Odds 2026
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC.
Ashley MoodyR leads at 90% across 4 venues: Kalshi 91%, Polymarket US 90%, PredictIt 83%, Polymarket 90%. Angie NixonD is at 10%.
Final prices before polls closed
Frozen at 2026-11-03 22:47 UTC. The result is entered when the race is called and scored on the results ledger.
- Kalshi Ashley Moody 91%
- Polymarket US Ashley Moody 90%
- PredictIt Ashley Moody 83%
- Polymarket Ashley Moody 90%
Candidates and prices
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley MoodyR incumbent Appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to Marco Rubio's seat, sworn in January 2025; former Florida attorney general (2019-2025); won Republican primary with 79.6% | 91% bid 91¢ · ask 91¢ · OI $1.8M | 90% ask 91¢ | 83% buy 83¢ | 90% vol $694k | 90% |
| Angie NixonD State representative from the 13th district (2020-present); won Democratic primary with 56.1% over Alex Vindman | 10% bid 10¢ · ask 10¢ · OI $2.2M | 9% ask 10¢ | 18% buy 18¢ | 10% vol $467k | 10% |
Where to trade this race
Every book we know that takes this race, with the price it shows for Ashley Moody. The brokers trade Kalshi's contract at Kalshi's price. Partner books pay us a referral fee; the order is paying books first, which never changes a price.
Each book checks age and location at sign-up. How the sites compare.
The race
The forecasters' consensus rating is Likely R, favouring the Republican. The markets' consensus has Ashley MoodyR at 90%. What a price means.
How the Kalshi market resolves
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Florida pursuant to the Class III (special election) held on November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Related races
- Florida Governor: Byron DonaldsR at 72%
- Iowa Senate: Josh TurekD at 50%
- Kansas Senate: Adam HamiltonD at 66%
- Alaska Senate: Mary PeltolaD at 69%
- Maine Senate: Troy JacksonD at 69%
- South Carolina Senate: Darline GrahamR at 70%