Iowa Senate Race Odds 2026
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC.
Josh TurekD leads at 50% across 4 venues: Kalshi 49%, Polymarket US 49%, PredictIt 57%, Polymarket 50%. Ashley HinsonR is at 50%.
Final prices before polls closed
Frozen at 2026-11-03 22:47 UTC. The result is entered when the race is called and scored on the results ledger.
- Kalshi Ashley Hinson 52%
- Polymarket US Ashley Hinson 50%
- PredictIt Josh Turek 57%
- Polymarket Josh Turek 50%
Candidates and prices
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh TurekD State representative, 20th district (2023-present); won primary with 62.6% over Zach Wahls | 49% bid 49¢ · ask 50¢ · OI $2.7M | 49% ask 50¢ | 57% buy 59¢ | 50% vol $1.1M | 50% |
| Ashley HinsonR U.S. representative, IA-2 (2021-present); Trump-endorsed; won primary with about 74% | 52% bid 51¢ · ask 52¢ · OI $4.0M | 50% ask 51¢ | 44% buy 45¢ | 50% vol $1.3M | 50% |
Where to trade this race
Every book we know that takes this race, with the price it shows for Josh Turek. The brokers trade Kalshi's contract at Kalshi's price. Partner books pay us a referral fee; the order is paying books first, which never changes a price.
Each book checks age and location at sign-up. How the sites compare.
The race
The forecasters' consensus rating is Toss-up, favouring the Republican. The markets' consensus has Josh TurekD at 50%. The market leader is not the incumbent party, so the markets price a flip. What a price means.
How the Kalshi market resolves
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Related races
- Iowa Governor: Rob SandD at 87%
- Kansas Senate: Adam HamiltonD at 66%
- Alaska Senate: Mary PeltolaD at 69%
- Maine Senate: Troy JacksonD at 69%
- South Carolina Senate: Darline GrahamR at 70%
- Nebraska Senate: Pete RickettsR at 72%