State of the OddsLive prediction-market odds, side by side

Iowa Senate Race Odds 2026

Prices as of 2026-09-19 18:30 UTC.

Kalshi has Ashley Hinson at 61%; Polymarket has Ashley Hinson (R) at 62%.

Candidate / partyKalshiPolymarketGap
Josh Turek D41%
bid 40¢ · ask 41¢ · OI $925k
39%
vol $189k
+2 pts
Ashley Hinson R61%
bid 60¢ · ask 61¢ · OI $740k
62%
vol $199k
-1 pts
Iowa Senate 2026 — Kalshi · Ashley Hinson · Polymarket · Ashley Hinson (R) · last 90 days
0%25%50%75%100%JulAugSepPolymarket · Ashley Hinson (R) 62%Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 61%

How the Kalshi market resolves

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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