Kansas Senate Race Odds 2026
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC.
Adam HamiltonD leads at 66% across 4 venues: Kalshi 66%, Polymarket US 65%, PredictIt 75%, Polymarket 64%. Roger MarshallR is at 35%.
Final prices before polls closed
Frozen at 2026-11-03 22:47 UTC. The result is entered when the race is called and scored on the results ledger.
- Kalshi Adam Hamilton 65%
- Polymarket US Adam Hamilton 64%
- PredictIt Adam Hamilton 75%
- Polymarket Adam Hamilton 64%
Candidates and prices
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam HamiltonD Pastor, founder of the Church of the Resurrection; won an eight-way primary with 34.6% | 66% bid 65¢ · ask 66¢ · OI $3.5M | 65% ask 66¢ | 75% buy 76¢ | 64% vol $1.4M | 66% |
| Roger MarshallR incumbent Senator since 2021, seeking a second term; won primary with 79.9% | 36% bid 35¢ · ask 36¢ · OI $3.4M | 35% ask 36¢ | 21% buy 33¢ | 36% vol $1.4M | 35% |
| David C. GrahamL Attorney, Libertarian nominee | — | — | — | — | — |
Where to trade this race
Every book we know that takes this race, with the price it shows for Adam Hamilton. The brokers trade Kalshi's contract at Kalshi's price. Partner books pay us a referral fee; the order is paying books first, which never changes a price.
Each book checks age and location at sign-up. How the sites compare.
The race
The forecasters' consensus rating is Toss-up, favouring the Democrat. The markets' consensus has Adam HamiltonD at 66%. The market leader is not the incumbent party, so the markets price a flip. What a price means.
How the Kalshi market resolves
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Kansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Related races
- Kansas Governor: Ty MastersonR at 64%
- Iowa Senate: Josh TurekD at 50%
- Alaska Senate: Mary PeltolaD at 69%
- Maine Senate: Troy JacksonD at 69%
- South Carolina Senate: Darline GrahamR at 70%
- Nebraska Senate: Pete RickettsR at 72%