Alaska Senate Race Odds 2026
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC.
Mary PeltolaD leads at 69% across 4 venues: Kalshi 68%, Polymarket US 67%, PredictIt 70%, Polymarket 70%. Gerald L. HeikesR is at 32%.
Final prices before polls closed
Frozen at 2026-11-03 22:47 UTC. The result is entered when the race is called and scored on the results ledger.
- Kalshi Mary Peltola 68%
- Polymarket US Mary Peltola 67%
- PredictIt Mary Peltola 70%
- Polymarket Mary Peltola 70%
Candidates and prices
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary PeltolaD Former U.S. representative for Alaska's at-large district (2022-2025) | 68% bid 67¢ · ask 68¢ · OI $1.1M | 67% ask 68¢ | 70% buy 70¢ | 70% vol $1.6M | 69% |
| Gerald L. HeikesR Perennial candidate; advanced to the top-four general after Democrat David Leslie withdrew | 33% bid 32¢ · ask 33¢ · OI $1.7M | 32% ask 33¢ | 31% buy 33¢ | — | 32% |
| Dan S. SullivanR incumbent Senator since 2015, seeking a third term | 33% bid 32¢ · ask 33¢ · OI $1.7M | 32% ask 33¢ | 31% buy 33¢ | 30% vol $1.2M | 32% |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.I Former U.S. Forest Service employee and retired teacher from Petersburg; filed as Republican but listed with no party by the Division of Elections; no relation to the incumbent | — | 32% ask 33¢ | — | 30% vol $1.2M | 31% |
Where to trade this race
Every book we know that takes this race, with the price it shows for Mary Peltola. The brokers trade Kalshi's contract at Kalshi's price. Partner books pay us a referral fee; the order is paying books first, which never changes a price.
Each book checks age and location at sign-up. How the sites compare.
The race
The forecasters' consensus rating is Toss-up, favouring the Democrat. The markets' consensus has Mary PeltolaD at 69%. The market leader is not the incumbent party, so the markets price a flip. What a price means.
How the Kalshi market resolves
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Alaska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Related races
- Alaska Governor: Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsD at 88%
- Iowa Senate: Josh TurekD at 50%
- Kansas Senate: Adam HamiltonD at 66%
- Maine Senate: Troy JacksonD at 69%
- South Carolina Senate: Darline GrahamR at 70%
- Nebraska Senate: Pete RickettsR at 72%