2026 Governor Election Odds
All 36 governor races with a market, every venue's price, the seat's history and the forecasters' ratings.
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC. Electoral facts from each state's race record, ratings as of the date on each race page.
Governor races
36
18 held by Democrats, 18 by Republicans
Open seats
19
no incumbent on the ballot
Toss-ups
1
forecasters' consensus rating
Markets price a flip
6
AK, GA, IA, KS, NV, OH
Leader under 75%
5
races the markets call close
Who the markets favour, state by state
Democrat leadsRepublican leadsIndependent leadsno race or no marketDarker = surer. Tap a state for the race.
Every governor race
The market leader and its price on each venue, with the forecasters' consensus rating. Filter by rating, seat or holding party; sort by closeness, the 2024 presidential margin or the gap between venues.
| State | Incumbent | Rating | Market leader | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Laura KellyD open seat | Lean R | Ty MastersonR flip | — | 64% | 62% | 64% | +2 pts |
| Texas | Greg AbbottR running | Lean R | Greg AbbottR | 67% | 66% | 65% | 66% | +2 pts |
| Vermont | Phil ScottR running | Likely R | Phil ScottR | 67% | 66% | 67% | 68% | +2 pts |
| Georgia | Brian KempR open seat | Lean D | Keisha Lance BottomsD flip | 72% | 71% | 68% | 72% | +4 pts |
| Florida | Ron DeSantisR open seat | Lean R | Byron DonaldsR | 73% | 73% | 68% | 72% | +5 pts |
| Ohio | Mike DeWineR open seat | Lean D | Amy ActonD flip | 79% | 79% | 81% | 82% | +2 pts |
| Nevada | Joe LombardoR running | Toss-up | Aaron FordD flip | 83% | 83% | 83% | 82% | +1 pts |
| Oregon | Tina KotekD running | Lean D | Tina KotekD | 84% | 83% | 70% | 86% | +16 pts |
| New Hampshire | Kelly AyotteR running | Likely R | Kelly AyotteR | — | 85% | — | 86% | +1 pts |
| Wisconsin | Tony EversD open seat | Lean D | David CrowleyD | 85% | 85% | 86% | 86% | +2 pts |
| Iowa | Kim ReynoldsR open seat | Lean D | Rob SandD flip | 87% | 87% | 88% | 88% | +1 pts |
| Alaska | Mike DunleavyR open seat | Lean D | Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsD flip | 87% | 88% | 93% | 87% | +6 pts |
| Nebraska | Jim PillenR running | Likely R | Jim PillenR | 88% | 89% | 93% | 88% | +5 pts |
| Oklahoma | Kevin StittR open seat | Likely R | Mike MazzeiR | 90% | 90% | — | 90% | +1 pts |
| Alabama | Kay IveyR open seat | Solid R | Tommy TubervilleR | 91% | 91% | 93% | 91% | +2 pts |
| Tennessee | Bill LeeR open seat | Solid R | Marsha BlackburnR | 92% | 92% | — | 93% | +1 pts |
| Arizona | Katie HobbsD running | Likely D | Katie HobbsD | 92% | 93% | 91% | 94% | +3 pts |
| Michigan | Gretchen WhitmerD open seat | Lean D | Jocelyn BensonD | 93% | 93% | 90% | 94% | +4 pts |
| South Carolina | Henry McMasterR open seat | Solid R | Alan WilsonR | 93% | 93% | — | 93% | +0 pts |
| New Mexico | Michelle Lujan GrishamD open seat | Solid D | Deb HaalandD | 94% | 94% | 96% | 95% | +2 pts |
| New York | Kathy HochulD running | Solid D | Kathy HochulD | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | +0 pts |
| Maine | Janet MillsD open seat | Solid D | Hannah PingreeD | 97% | 96% | — | 97% | +1 pts |
| Minnesota | Tim WalzD open seat | Solid D | Amy KlobucharD | 97% | 97% | 97% | 98% | +1 pts |
| California | Gavin NewsomD open seat | Solid D | Xavier BecerraD | 98% | 97% | 97% | 98% | +1 pts |
| Colorado | Jared PolisD open seat | Solid D | Phil WeiserD | 97% | 97% | 99% | 97% | +2 pts |
| Arkansas | Sarah Huckabee SandersR running | Solid R | Sarah Huckabee SandersR | 98% | 97% | — | 98% | +1 pts |
| Connecticut | Ned LamontD running | Solid D | Ned LamontD | 98% | 98% | 99% | 98% | +2 pts |
| Rhode Island | Dan McKeeD open seat | Solid D | Helena FoulkesD | 98% | 98% | 99% | 98% | +1 pts |
| Pennsylvania | Josh ShapiroD running | Solid D | Josh ShapiroD | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% | +0 pts |
| Massachusetts | Maura HealeyD running | Solid D | Maura HealeyD | 98% | 98% | 97% | 98% | +1 pts |
| Idaho | Brad LittleR running | Solid R | Brad LittleR | 98% | 98% | — | 98% | +0 pts |
| Illinois | JB PritzkerD running | Solid D | JB PritzkerD | 98% | 98% | — | 98% | +0 pts |
| South Dakota | Larry RhodenR running | Solid R | Larry RhodenR | 98% | 98% | — | 98% | +0 pts |
| Hawaii | Josh GreenD running | Solid D | Josh GreenD | 99% | 98% | — | 98% | +1 pts |
| Wyoming | Mark GordonR open seat | Solid R | Eric BarlowR | 99% | 98% | — | 99% | +1 pts |
| Maryland | Wes MooreD running | Solid D | Wes MooreD | 99% | 98% | 99% | 99% | +1 pts |
Consensus is the median of the venues that list the race. A gap is a disagreement between pools of real money. Neither side is a forecast. Brokers that trade Kalshi's contract (Robinhood, Coinbase, Webull, Public) show Kalshi's price; each race page lists them. How to read these prices.