Nevada Governor Race Odds 2026
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC.
Aaron FordD leads at 83% across 4 venues: Kalshi 83%, Polymarket US 83%, PredictIt 83%, Polymarket 82%. Danielle FordI is at 83%.
Final prices before polls closed
Frozen at 2026-11-03 22:47 UTC. The result is entered when the race is called and scored on the results ledger.
- Kalshi Aaron Ford 83%
- Polymarket US Aaron Ford 83%
- PredictIt Aaron Ford 83%
- Polymarket Aaron Ford 82%
Candidates and prices
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron FordD Attorney General | 83% bid 82¢ · ask 83¢ · OI $1.4M | 83% ask 84¢ | 83% buy 83¢ | 82% vol $968k | 83% |
| Danielle FordI Independent, Nevada State Board of Education member; 7% in Noble Predictive Insights Sept 22-26 | — | — | 83% buy 83¢ | — | 83% |
| Joe LombardoR incumbent Governor since 2023 | 18% bid 17¢ · ask 18¢ · OI $1.8M | 17% ask 18¢ | 17% buy 23¢ | 18% vol $720k | 17% |
Where to trade this race
Every book we know that takes this race, with the price it shows for Aaron Ford. The brokers trade Kalshi's contract at Kalshi's price. Partner books pay us a referral fee; the order is paying books first, which never changes a price.
Each book checks age and location at sign-up. How the sites compare.
The race
The forecasters' consensus rating is Toss-up, favouring the Democrat. The markets' consensus has Aaron FordD at 83%. The market leader is not the incumbent party, so the markets price a flip. What a price means.
How the Kalshi market resolves
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Nevada pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Related races
- Kansas Governor: Ty MastersonR at 64%
- Texas Governor: Greg AbbottR at 66%
- Vermont Governor: Phil ScottR at 67%
- Georgia Governor: Keisha Lance BottomsD at 72%
- Florida Governor: Byron DonaldsR at 72%