2026 Senate Election Odds
All 35 Senate races with a market, every venue's price, the seat's history and the forecasters' ratings.
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC. Electoral facts from each state's race record, ratings as of the date on each race page.
Senate races
35
13 held by Democrats, 22 by Republicans
Open seats
13
no incumbent on the ballot
Toss-ups
4
forecasters' consensus rating
Markets price a flip
7
AK, IA, KS, ME, NC, OH, TX
Leader under 75%
8
races the markets call close
Who the markets favour, state by state
Democrat leadsRepublican leadsIndependent leadsno race or no marketDarker = surer. Tap a state for the race.
Every Senate race
The market leader and its price on each venue, with the forecasters' consensus rating. Filter by rating, seat or holding party; sort by closeness, the 2024 presidential margin or the gap between venues.
| State | Incumbent | Rating | Market leader | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Joni ErnstR open seat | Toss-up | Josh TurekD flip | 49% | 49% | 57% | 50% | +8 pts |
| Kansas | Roger MarshallR running | Toss-up | Adam HamiltonD flip | 66% | 65% | 75% | 64% | +10 pts |
| Alaska | Dan SullivanR running | Toss-up | Mary PeltolaD flip | 68% | 67% | 70% | 70% | +3 pts |
| Maine | Susan CollinsR running | Toss-up | Troy JacksonD flip | 70% | 69% | 67% | 70% | +3 pts |
| South Carolina | Darline GrahamR appointed, running | Lean R | Darline GrahamR | 70% | 70% | 66% | 72% | +5 pts |
| Nebraska | Pete RickettsR running | Lean R | Pete RickettsR | 72% | 72% | 70% | 72% | +3 pts |
| Ohio special | Jon HustedR appointed, running | Lean D | Sherrod BrownD flip | 72% | 70% | 76% | 72% | +6 pts |
| Texas | John CornynR open seat | Lean D | James TalaricoD flip | 75% | 74% | 73% | 76% | +3 pts |
| Michigan | Gary PetersD open seat | Lean D | Abdul El-SayedD | 75% | 75% | 75% | 76% | +2 pts |
| Louisiana | Bill CassidyR open seat | Likely R | Julia LetlowR | 83% | 83% | 88% | 84% | +5 pts |
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-SmithR running | Likely R | Cindy Hyde-SmithR | 87% | 86% | 88% | 86% | +2 pts |
| Florida special | Ashley MoodyR appointed, running | Likely R | Ashley MoodyR | 91% | 90% | 83% | 90% | +8 pts |
| Minnesota | Tina SmithD open seat | Lean D | Peggy FlanaganD | 91% | 90% | 92% | 92% | +2 pts |
| Montana | Steve DainesR open seat | Solid R | Kurt AlmeR | 93% | 92% | 93% | 92% | +1 pts |
| New Hampshire | Jeanne ShaheenD open seat | Lean D | Chris PappasD | 94% | 94% | 94% | 96% | +2 pts |
| South Dakota | Mike RoundsR running | Solid R | Mike RoundsR | 95% | 95% | 94% | 95% | +1 pts |
| Idaho | Jim RischR running | Solid R | Jim RischR | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | +0 pts |
| Arkansas | Tom CottonR running | Solid R | Tom CottonR | 97% | 97% | 96% | 97% | +1 pts |
| Kentucky | Mitch McConnellR open seat | Solid R | Andy BarrR | 97% | 97% | 95% | 97% | +2 pts |
| Georgia | Jon OssoffD running | Likely D | Jon OssoffD | 97% | 97% | 98% | 97% | +1 pts |
| Alabama | Tommy TubervilleR open seat | Solid R | Barry MooreR | 98% | 97% | 98% | 98% | +1 pts |
| Tennessee | Bill HagertyR running | Solid R | Bill HagertyR | 98% | 98% | 97% | 98% | +1 pts |
| North Carolina | Thom TillisR open seat | Likely D | Roy CooperD flip | 98% | 98% | 99% | 98% | +1 pts |
| Oklahoma | Alan ArmstrongR open seat | Solid R | Kevin HernR | 99% | 98% | 98% | 99% | +1 pts |
| New Jersey | Cory BookerD running | Solid D | Cory BookerD | 99% | 98% | 97% | 99% | +2 pts |
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore CapitoR running | Solid R | Shelley Moore CapitoR | 99% | 98% | 98% | 99% | +1 pts |
| Massachusetts | Ed MarkeyD running | Solid D | Ed MarkeyD | 98% | 98% | 99% | 99% | +1 pts |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray LujánD running | Solid D | Ben Ray LujánD | 99% | 98% | 99% | 99% | +1 pts |
| Wyoming | Cynthia LummisR open seat | Solid R | Harriet HagemanR | 99% | 98% | 99% | 99% | +1 pts |
| Illinois | Dick DurbinD open seat | Solid D | Juliana StrattonD | 99% | 98% | 99% | 99% | +1 pts |
| Delaware | Chris CoonsD running | Solid D | Chris CoonsD | 99% | 98% | 99% | 99% | +1 pts |
| Virginia | Mark WarnerD running | Solid D | Mark WarnerD | 99% | 98% | 99% | 99% | +1 pts |
| Colorado | John HickenlooperD running | Solid D | John HickenlooperD | 99% | — | 99% | 99% | +0 pts |
| Oregon | Jeff MerkleyD running | Solid D | Jeff MerkleyD | 99% | — | 99% | 99% | +0 pts |
| Rhode Island | Jack ReedD running | Solid D | Jack ReedD | 100% | — | 99% | 100% | +1 pts |
Consensus is the median of the venues that list the race. A gap is a disagreement between pools of real money. Neither side is a forecast. Brokers that trade Kalshi's contract (Robinhood, Coinbase, Webull, Public) show Kalshi's price; each race page lists them. How to read these prices.