Texas Senate Race Odds 2026
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC.
James TalaricoD leads at 74% across 4 venues: Kalshi 75%, Polymarket US 74%, PredictIt 73%, Polymarket 76%. Ken PaxtonR is at 26%.
Final prices before polls closed
Frozen at 2026-11-03 22:47 UTC. The result is entered when the race is called and scored on the results ledger.
- Kalshi James Talarico 75%
- Polymarket US James Talarico 74%
- PredictIt James Talarico 73%
- Polymarket James Talarico 76%
Candidates and prices
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James TalaricoD State representative; beat Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary | 75% bid 74¢ · ask 75¢ · OI $20.1M | 74% ask 75¢ | 73% buy 73¢ | 76% vol $6.5M | 74% |
| Ken PaxtonR Texas attorney general; beat Cornyn 63.8-36.2 in the May 26 runoff | 26% bid 25¢ · ask 26¢ · OI $54.8M | 25% ask 26¢ | 28% buy 28¢ | 24% vol $9.2M | 26% |
Where to trade this race
Every book we know that takes this race, with the price it shows for James Talarico. The brokers trade Kalshi's contract at Kalshi's price. Partner books pay us a referral fee; the order is paying books first, which never changes a price.
Each book checks age and location at sign-up. How the sites compare.
The race
The forecasters' consensus rating is Lean D, favouring the Democrat. The markets' consensus has James TalaricoD at 74%. The market leader is not the incumbent party, so the markets price a flip. What a price means.
How the Kalshi market resolves
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Related races
- Texas Governor: Greg AbbottR at 66%
- Iowa Senate: Josh TurekD at 50%
- Kansas Senate: Adam HamiltonD at 66%
- Alaska Senate: Mary PeltolaD at 69%
- Maine Senate: Troy JacksonD at 69%
- South Carolina Senate: Darline GrahamR at 70%