Texas Senate Race Odds 2026
Prices as of 2026-09-19 18:30 UTC.
Kalshi has James Talarico at 59%; Polymarket has James Talarico (D) at 60%.
| Candidate / party | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico D | 59% bid 58¢ · ask 59¢ · OI $3.9M | 60% vol $590k | -1 pts |
| Ken Paxton R | 42% bid 41¢ · ask 42¢ · OI $5.1M | 42% vol $747k | +1 pts |
Texas Senate 2026 — Kalshi · James Talarico · Polymarket · James Talarico (D) · last 90 days
How the Kalshi market resolves
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.