2026 Results Against the Odds
Every Senate and governor result against the final price on each venue. Which market called it, and by how much.
Final prices frozen at 2026-11-03 22:47 UTC; the freeze is retaken at the last read before polls close. Results are entered by hand from the call, with the source linked. 0 of 71 races called.
How each venue did
For every called race, did the venue's favourite win, and how far was its price on the winner from certainty. The Brier figure is the average squared error on the winner's contract: a venue that had the winner at 90% scores 0.01 on that race, one that had the winner at 40% scores 0.36.
Kalshi
69
races priced at the freeze · no results yet
Polymarket US
71
races priced at the freeze · no results yet
PredictIt
61
races priced at the freeze · no results yet
Polymarket
71
races priced at the freeze · no results yet
Consensus
71
races priced at the freeze · no results yet
Every race
Each venue's favourite and its price at the freeze, the consensus median, and the result. Called races first, upsets at the top.
| Race | Favourite at the freeze | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Consensus | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa Senate | Josh TurekD | 52% | 50% | 57% | 50% | 50% | not called |
| Kansas Governor | Ty MastersonR | — | 64% | 62% | 64% | 64% | not called |
| Kansas Senate | Adam HamiltonD | 65% | 64% | 75% | 64% | 65% | not called |
| Texas Governor | Greg AbbottR | 67% | 65% | 65% | 64% | 65% | not called |
| Vermont Governor | Phil ScottR | 67% | 66% | 67% | 68% | 67% | not called |
| Alaska Senate | Mary PeltolaD | 68% | 67% | 70% | 70% | 69% | not called |
| Maine Senate | Troy JacksonD | 70% | 69% | 69% | 70% | 69% | not called |
| South Carolina Senate | Darline GrahamR | 71% | 70% | 66% | 70% | 70% | not called |
| Georgia Governor | Keisha Lance BottomsD | 71% | 71% | 68% | 72% | 71% | not called |
| Florida Governor | Byron DonaldsR | 72% | 72% | 68% | 70% | 71% | not called |
| Nebraska Senate | Pete RickettsR | 72% | 71% | 70% | 72% | 72% | not called |
| Ohio Senate | Sherrod BrownD | 71% | 70% | 76% | 72% | 72% | not called |
| Texas Senate | James TalaricoD | 75% | 74% | 73% | 76% | 74% | not called |
| Michigan Senate | Abdul El-SayedD | 76% | 75% | 76% | 76% | 76% | not called |
| Ohio Governor | Amy ActonD | 80% | 79% | 81% | 82% | 80% | not called |
| Nevada Governor | Aaron FordD | 83% | 83% | 83% | 82% | 83% | not called |
| Oregon Governor | Tina KotekD | 83% | 83% | 70% | 86% | 83% | not called |
| Louisiana Senate | Julia LetlowR | 83% | 83% | 88% | 84% | 84% | not called |
| New Hampshire Governor | Kelly AyotteR | — | 85% | 19% | 86% | 85% | not called |
| Wisconsin Governor | David CrowleyD | 85% | 85% | 86% | 86% | 86% | not called |
| Mississippi Senate | Cindy Hyde-SmithR | 87% | 86% | 88% | 86% | 87% | not called |
| Iowa Governor | Rob SandD | 85% | 87% | 88% | 88% | 87% | not called |
| Alaska Governor | Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsD | 87% | 88% | 93% | 87% | 88% | not called |
| Nebraska Governor | Jim PillenR | 88% | 89% | 93% | 88% | 89% | not called |
| Florida Senate | Ashley MoodyR | 91% | 90% | 83% | 90% | 90% | not called |
| Oklahoma Governor | Mike MazzeiR | 90% | 90% | — | 90% | 90% | not called |
| Minnesota Senate | Peggy FlanaganD | 91% | 90% | 92% | 92% | 91% | not called |
| Alabama Governor | Tommy TubervilleR | 91% | 91% | 93% | 91% | 91% | not called |
| Tennessee Governor | Marsha BlackburnR | 92% | 92% | — | 93% | 92% | not called |
| Arizona Governor | Katie HobbsD | 92% | 93% | 91% | 94% | 93% | not called |
| Montana Senate | Kurt AlmeR | 93% | 92% | 93% | 92% | 93% | not called |
| Michigan Governor | Jocelyn BensonD | 93% | 93% | 90% | 94% | 93% | not called |
| South Carolina Governor | Alan WilsonR | 93% | 93% | — | 93% | 93% | not called |
| New Hampshire Senate | Chris PappasD | 94% | 94% | 94% | 96% | 94% | not called |
| South Dakota Senate | Mike RoundsR | 95% | 95% | 94% | 95% | 95% | not called |
| New Mexico Governor | Deb HaalandD | 94% | 94% | 96% | 95% | 95% | not called |
| New York Governor | Kathy HochulD | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | not called |
| Idaho Senate | Jim RischR | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | not called |
| Maine Governor | Hannah PingreeD | 97% | 96% | — | 97% | 97% | not called |
| Kentucky Senate | Andy BarrR | 97% | 97% | 95% | 97% | 97% | not called |
| Minnesota Governor | Amy KlobucharD | 97% | 97% | 97% | 98% | 97% | not called |
| Arkansas Senate | Tom CottonR | 97% | 97% | 96% | 97% | 97% | not called |
| Georgia Senate | Jon OssoffD | 97% | 97% | 98% | 97% | 97% | not called |
| California Governor | Xavier BecerraD | 98% | 97% | 97% | 98% | 97% | not called |
| Colorado Governor | Phil WeiserD | 97% | 97% | 99% | 97% | 97% | not called |
| Arkansas Governor | Sarah Huckabee SandersR | 98% | 97% | — | 98% | 98% | not called |
| Connecticut Governor | Ned LamontD | 98% | 98% | 99% | 98% | 98% | not called |
| Alabama Senate | Barry MooreR | 98% | 97% | 98% | 98% | 98% | not called |
| Tennessee Senate | Bill HagertyR | 98% | 98% | 97% | 98% | 98% | not called |
| Illinois Governor | JB PritzkerD | 98% | 98% | — | 98% | 98% | not called |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Josh ShapiroD | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% | not called |
| Rhode Island Governor | Helena FoulkesD | 98% | 98% | 99% | 98% | 98% | not called |
| Massachusetts Governor | Maura HealeyD | 98% | 98% | 97% | 98% | 98% | not called |
| Idaho Governor | Brad LittleR | 98% | 98% | — | 98% | 98% | not called |
| North Carolina Senate | Roy CooperD | 98% | 98% | 99% | 98% | 98% | not called |
| South Dakota Governor | Larry RhodenR | 98% | 98% | — | 98% | 98% | not called |
| Oklahoma Senate | Kevin HernR | 99% | 98% | 98% | 99% | 98% | not called |
| New Jersey Senate | Cory BookerD | 99% | 98% | 97% | 99% | 98% | not called |
| West Virginia Senate | Shelley Moore CapitoR | 99% | 98% | 98% | 99% | 98% | not called |
| Hawaii Governor | Josh GreenD | 99% | 98% | — | 98% | 98% | not called |
| New Mexico Senate | Ben Ray LujánD | 99% | 98% | 99% | 99% | 99% | not called |
| Massachusetts Senate | Ed MarkeyD | 98% | 98% | 99% | 99% | 99% | not called |
| Wyoming Senate | Harriet HagemanR | 99% | 98% | 99% | 99% | 99% | not called |
| Wyoming Governor | Eric BarlowR | 99% | 98% | — | 99% | 99% | not called |
| Maryland Governor | Wes MooreD | 99% | 98% | 99% | 99% | 99% | not called |
| Illinois Senate | Juliana StrattonD | 99% | 98% | 99% | 99% | 99% | not called |
| Delaware Senate | Chris CoonsD | 99% | 98% | 99% | 99% | 99% | not called |
| Virginia Senate | Mark WarnerD | 99% | 98% | 99% | 99% | 99% | not called |
| Colorado Senate | John HickenlooperD | 99% | 1% | 99% | 99% | 99% | not called |
| Oregon Senate | Jeff MerkleyD | 99% | 1% | 99% | 99% | 99% | not called |
| Rhode Island Senate | Jack ReedD | 99% | 1% | 99% | 100% | 99% | not called |
A favourite losing is not a venue being wrong. A 60% favourite should lose two races in five; the Brier score, taken over many races, is the fair test. Prices before fees; the full method is on how prices work.