Virginia Senate Race Odds 2026
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC.
Mark WarnerD leads at 99% across 4 venues: Kalshi 99%, Polymarket US 98%, PredictIt 99%, Polymarket 99%. Bert MizusawaR is at 1%.
Final prices before polls closed
Frozen at 2026-11-03 22:47 UTC. The result is entered when the race is called and scored on the results ledger.
- Kalshi Mark Warner 99%
- Polymarket US Mark Warner 98%
- PredictIt Mark Warner 99%
- Polymarket Mark Warner 99%
Candidates and prices
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark WarnerD incumbent Senator since 2009, seeking a fourth term; nominated unopposed | 99% bid 99¢ · ask 99¢ · OI $25k | 98% ask 99¢ | 99% | 99% vol $18k | 99% |
| Bert MizusawaR Army general; won the GOP primary with 51.5% | 1% bid 1¢ · ask 1¢ · OI $108k | 1% ask 2¢ | 1% buy 2¢ | <1% vol $9k | 1% |
Where to trade this race
Every book we know that takes this race, with the price it shows for Mark Warner. The brokers trade Kalshi's contract at Kalshi's price. Partner books pay us a referral fee; the order is paying books first, which never changes a price.
Each book checks age and location at sign-up. How the sites compare.
The race
The forecasters' consensus rating is Solid D, favouring the Democrat. The markets' consensus has Mark WarnerD at 99%. What a price means.
How the Kalshi market resolves
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Virginia for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Related races
- Iowa Senate: Josh TurekD at 50%
- Kansas Senate: Adam HamiltonD at 66%
- Alaska Senate: Mary PeltolaD at 69%
- Maine Senate: Troy JacksonD at 69%
- South Carolina Senate: Darline GrahamR at 70%