South Dakota Senate Race Odds 2026
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC.
Mike RoundsR leads at 95% across 4 venues: Kalshi 95%, Polymarket US 95%, PredictIt 94%, Polymarket 95%. Brian BengsI is at 6%.
Final prices before polls closed
Frozen at 2026-11-03 22:47 UTC. The result is entered when the race is called and scored on the results ledger.
- Kalshi Mike Rounds 95%
- Polymarket US Mike Rounds 95%
- PredictIt Mike Rounds 94%
- Polymarket Mike Rounds 95%
Candidates and prices
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike RoundsR incumbent Senator since 2015, seeking a third term | 95% bid 95¢ · ask 95¢ · OI $239k | 95% ask 96¢ | 94% buy 95¢ | 95% vol $66k | 95% |
| Brian BengsI Independent; ballot placement confirmed April 28, 2026 | 6% bid 5¢ · ask 6¢ · OI $293k | 5% ask 6¢ | 11% buy 11¢ | 5% vol $43k | 6% |
Where to trade this race
Every book we know that takes this race, with the price it shows for Mike Rounds. The brokers trade Kalshi's contract at Kalshi's price. Partner books pay us a referral fee; the order is paying books first, which never changes a price.
Each book checks age and location at sign-up. How the sites compare.
The race
The forecasters' consensus rating is Solid R, favouring the Republican. The markets' consensus has Mike RoundsR at 95%. What a price means.
How the Kalshi market resolves
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of South Dakota for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Related races
- South Dakota Governor: Larry RhodenR at 98%
- Iowa Senate: Josh TurekD at 50%
- Kansas Senate: Adam HamiltonD at 66%
- Alaska Senate: Mary PeltolaD at 69%
- Maine Senate: Troy JacksonD at 69%
- South Carolina Senate: Darline GrahamR at 70%