Oregon Senate Race Odds 2026
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC.
Jeff MerkleyD leads at 99% across 3 venues: Kalshi 99%, PredictIt 99%, Polymarket 99%. David Brock SmithR is at 1%.
Final prices before polls closed
Frozen at 2026-11-03 22:47 UTC. The result is entered when the race is called and scored on the results ledger.
- Kalshi Jeff Merkley 99%
- Polymarket US David Brock Smith 1%
- PredictIt Jeff Merkley 99%
- Polymarket Jeff Merkley 99%
Candidates and prices
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff MerkleyD incumbent Senator since 2009, seeking a fourth term | 99% bid 99¢ · ask 99¢ · OI $15k | — | 99% buy 99¢ | 99% vol $5k | 99% |
| David Brock SmithR State senator | 1% bid 1¢ · ask 1¢ · OI $36k | 1% ask 1¢ | 3% buy 4¢ | <1% vol $7k | 1% |
Where to trade this race
Every book we know that takes this race, with the price it shows for Jeff Merkley. The brokers trade Kalshi's contract at Kalshi's price. Partner books pay us a referral fee; the order is paying books first, which never changes a price.
Each book checks age and location at sign-up. How the sites compare.
The race
The forecasters' consensus rating is Solid D, favouring the Democrat. The markets' consensus has Jeff MerkleyD at 99%. What a price means.
How the Kalshi market resolves
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Oregon for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Related races
- Oregon Governor: Tina KotekD at 84%
- Iowa Senate: Josh TurekD at 50%
- Kansas Senate: Adam HamiltonD at 66%
- Alaska Senate: Mary PeltolaD at 69%
- Maine Senate: Troy JacksonD at 69%
- South Carolina Senate: Darline GrahamR at 70%