State of the OddsLive prediction-market odds, side by side

Oregon Senate Race Odds 2026

Prices as of 2026-09-19 18:30 UTC.

Kalshi has Jeff Merkley at 97%; Polymarket has Jeff Merkley (D) at 97%.

Candidate / partyKalshiPolymarketGap
Jeff Merkley D97%
bid 98¢ · ask 98¢ · OI $3k
97%
vol $4k
-0 pts
David Brock Smith R2%
bid 2¢ · ask 2¢ · OI $4k
2%
vol $3k
+0 pts
Oregon Senate 2026 — Kalshi · Jeff Merkley · Polymarket · Jeff Merkley (D) · last 90 days
0%25%50%75%100%JulAugSepKalshi · Jeff Merkley 100%Polymarket · Jeff Merkley (D) 98%

How the Kalshi market resolves

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Oregon for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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