State of the OddsLive prediction-market odds, side by side

Arkansas Senate Race Odds 2026

Prices as of 2026-09-19 18:30 UTC.

Kalshi has Tom Cotton at 93%; Polymarket has Tom Cotton (R) at 94%.

Candidate / partyKalshiPolymarketGap
Hallie Shoffner D7%
bid 7¢ · ask 7¢ · OI $61k
5%
vol $4k
+2 pts
Tom Cotton R93%
bid 93¢ · ask 94¢ · OI $14k
Tom Cotton (R)
94%
vol $13k
Arkansas Senate 2026 — Kalshi · Tom Cotton · Polymarket · Tom Cotton (R) · last 90 days
0%25%50%75%100%JulAugSepPolymarket · Tom Cotton (R) 94%Kalshi · Tom Cotton 93%

How the Kalshi market resolves

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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