Arkansas Senate Race Odds 2026
Prices as of 2026-11-03 22:50 UTC.
Tom CottonR leads at 97% across 4 venues: Kalshi 97%, Polymarket US 97%, PredictIt 96%, Polymarket 97%. Hallie ShoffnerD is at 3%.
Final prices before polls closed
Frozen at 2026-11-03 22:47 UTC. The result is entered when the race is called and scored on the results ledger.
- Kalshi Tom Cotton 97%
- Polymarket US Tom Cotton 97%
- PredictIt Tom Cotton 96%
- Polymarket Tom Cotton 97%
Candidates and prices
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket US | PredictIt | Polymarket | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom CottonR incumbent Senator since 2015, seeking a third term | 97% bid 97¢ · ask 97¢ · OI $212k | 97% ask 98¢ | 96% buy 98¢ | 97% vol $73k | 97% |
| Hallie ShoffnerD Farmer and entrepreneur; won Democratic primary with 78.3% | 3% bid 3¢ · ask 3¢ · OI $360k | 3% ask 4¢ | 3% buy 5¢ | 3% vol $57k | 3% |
| Jeff WadlinL Strategy consultant, Libertarian nominee | — | — | — | — | — |
Where to trade this race
Every book we know that takes this race, with the price it shows for Tom Cotton. The brokers trade Kalshi's contract at Kalshi's price. Partner books pay us a referral fee; the order is paying books first, which never changes a price.
Each book checks age and location at sign-up. How the sites compare.
The race
The forecasters' consensus rating is Solid R, favouring the Republican. The markets' consensus has Tom CottonR at 97%. What a price means.
How the Kalshi market resolves
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Related races
- Arkansas Governor: Sarah Huckabee SandersR at 98%
- Iowa Senate: Josh TurekD at 50%
- Kansas Senate: Adam HamiltonD at 66%
- Alaska Senate: Mary PeltolaD at 69%
- Maine Senate: Troy JacksonD at 69%
- South Carolina Senate: Darline GrahamR at 70%