Kalshi has Smith leading at 38%, ahead of Mensah at 29%, with CJ Carr third at 15% and Trinidad Chambliss fourth at 9%. Over on Polymarket, Mensah sits at 35% as the new favorite, with Smith at 25% and Miami receiver Malachi Toney third at 20%. Notice who is missing from one list and not the other. Toney does not crack Kalshi's published top ten at all, while Polymarket has him priced as a legitimate contender. Neither market is wrong. They are just pricing different information at different hours, which is the whole point of checking both before you trust either.
Carr, for what it is worth, is a tier back on Polymarket. Notre Dame's CJ Carr boasts the fourth-best odds to win the award there, same ranking as Kalshi, though the exact cents differ. The two exchanges rarely disagree on order this far down the board. They disagree on how much daylight to put between the top two names, which is where the money actually is.
Biggest Movers This Week
Kalshi publishes its own seven-day deltas, and the one that jumps off the board is Carr. CJ Carr's odds moved up 11 percentage points over the past seven days, the largest swing on the sheet, while Trinidad Chambliss gained 5 points and Darian Mensah gained 4. Smith, still the favorite, actually ticked down 2 points in the same window. Leading the market and gaining ground in it are two different jobs, and this week Smith only had the first one.
The Smith slide traces to his own backfield, not his own stat line. The injury to Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin has been detrimental to Jeremiah Smith's Heisman Trophy odds, which is the kind of thing a receiver's campaign cannot control no matter how many catches he makes. Mensah's run higher came from the other direction entirely. USC knocked Ohio State off their perch in Week 9, opening the door for Darian Mensah of the Miami Hurricanes, and the market did what markets do when a leader stumbles: it found the next name in line and started buying.
Carr's 11-point week did not happen in a vacuum either, though the market rarely explains itself in the fine print. A quarterback does not gain that much ground on a bye week. Whatever game tape caused it, the price moved before most column inches did, which is the usual order of operations here.
Where the Markets Disagree
The real split is a different person at the top of the sheet, worth far more than a few points on a shared number. Kalshi has Smith 9 points clear of Mensah. Polymarket has Mensah 10 points clear of Smith. That is not noise, that is two trading populations drawing opposite conclusions from the same week of football, which happens more often with this award than with, say, a Senate race, because the Heisman has no debate stage and no polling to anchor expectations. It has highlight packages, and highlight packages get interpreted differently depending on which exchange you are standing in.
The Toney gap is the stranger one. Polymarket prices him at 20%, good for third. He does not appear in Kalshi's published top ten at all. Either Kalshi's traders think his workload is not going to scale with Mensah's, or Polymarket's traders are pricing a receiver who benefits every time his own quarterback's stock rises, since the two Miami players are not mutually exclusive outcomes the way Smith and Mensah are. Either read is plausible. Neither is a prediction, just a description of two order books that have not converged yet.
That is the case for checking both before the ceremony rather than screenshotting whichever one loaded first.
Full Odds Table
The numbers above are already stale by the time you finish reading them, which is the nature of a market and not a flaw in it. For the complete, continuously updating board, see the live Kalshi Heisman market, which lists 49 candidates and refreshes as contracts trade. For Polymarket's full field, including names below the cut line used here, see the live Polymarket Heisman market.
Both tables carry the mechanics explained in more detail on our how prices work page, and if the Heisman race has you curious about how these two exchanges price other crowded fields, the awards odds hub tracks the same Kalshi-versus-Polymarket format for the Oscars, Emmys, and Grammys.
State of the Odds reports prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. It does not operate a market, accept wagers, or offer betting, financial, or legal advice. Odds are a snapshot and change continuously; follow the links above for the current number. For adults only, where permitted. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. This page contains affiliate links; see our disclosure for details.